MACRO TRENDS
COVID-19 has been a major disruptor to business, society, and personal life as we know it. Industries that were previously booming are now questioning their future. This page articulates potential trends that organizations may face as a result of the pandemic. I originally wanted to focus on the consumer trends in normal life. However, the COVID-19 has the potential to forever change life as we know it. I use the critical thinking skills that St. Olaf has equipped me with to think about the ways that we will be changed following the pandemic. Listed below are a series of op-eds surrounding the potential consumer trends following the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the nature of this illness, it is possible that a vaccine is never discovered. Life may never return to complete normalcy. However, these trends will assume that eventually society is able to go return to pre-COVID-19 ways.
CULTURAL/ SOCIAL
After months of social distancing at home, individuals will either, "go big" or stay home. After being stuck inside for months to years, individuals may decide to go big and strive to return to their pre-COVID-19 lifestyle. As seen in Texas, Florida, and Georgia, there have been surges in people rushing to the beach, movie theaters, restaurants, salons, and retail stores in an effort to resume their “normal” lifestyle. Due to the novelty of regular life, individuals will prioritize spending time with friends and family in person. Previously considered mundane activities, such as going to a restaurant, having friends over for dinner, spending lengthy amounts of time in a grocery store, or working out at the gym will feel like a completely new experience. This may cause a surge in people wanting to “make up” for their lost time while social distancing. Conversely, individuals may decide that they want to spend time at home. While being forced to spend time at home, individuals may have developed a stronger sense of capability than their previous lifestyle. People may have developed and refined their cooking and baking abilities, which could result in them wanting to make their own bread rather than buying it from their previously cherished bakery. People may have learned how to cut their spouses hair, which could result in omitting that cost each month in their post-COVID-19 lifestyle. Additionally, there may be a stronger push for regular family time in the months to follow. After “going big” and spending time with people that have not been seen for months, individuals may miss spending as much time as they had with their family while or individuals they were with while social distancing.
DEMOGRAPHIC
There will be two key demographic trends observed in light of COVID-19: education gaps in individuals under the age of 28 and early retirement for those over the age of 55. For many fields, experiential learning is integral to their comprehensive understanding of the subject matter at hand. For STEM courses, it is imperative to practice the techniques with the assistance and instruction of a Subject Matter Expert (SME). In regards to the medical field, medical school students must learn how to perform surgeries. While they may be able to practice their sutures on fruit, there is added pressure in performing on a body. At a less extreme level, elementary-aged children may not have access to technology, which may cause them to be behind in learning the fundamental building blocks of their education, such as learning to read and write, basic math, and the social skills attributed to being with individuals the same age. For years to come, students may need added assistance in learning the fundamental elements of their practice. Additionally, over 30 million people have applied for unemployment. Baby boomers currently make up over 25% of the work force. There is no available data on the age breakdown of those who have applied for unemployment. However, assuming the layoffs and furloughs are evenly spread out throughout the generations, that would assume ~7.5 million Baby Boomers are currently unemployed. Individuals over the age of 55 may face an ultimatum of either returning to work for a few more years prior to retiring or cutting their losses and retiring early. Early retirement and increasing life expectancy may lead to later life financial struggles. Individuals may need more financial support in their elderly years or need less expensive assisted living options.
TECHNOLOGY
In light of COVID-19, many processes have been expedited at an unprecedented rate out of necessity. Individuals have been forced to work from home. Individuals who may not have considered themselves to be particularly tech-savvy have been required to adopt technology into their everyday lifestyle. In particular, entire industries that previously were solely in person have had to shift to online. The most common example of these industries include health and education. In the health industry, thousands of care systems across the country have had to train the majority of their physicians in how to provide teleconsults. The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) has now accommodated for online platforms like Zoom, Google Meets, and Skype. Prior to COVID-19, the opportunity for telehealth and tele- consults were hindered by patient privacy. This pandemic may allow for increased growth within online health. Additionally, education has had to completely shift to online. Depending on the length of the pandemic, online universities like the University of Phoenix Online may see a rise in admissions. The value proposition of small, expensive, liberal arts colleges are no longer as strong. Liberal arts colleges thrive off close and interpersonal connections with professors and a strong sense of community online. However, when all educational institutions are required to be on the same “campus”, students may shift their mindset and think that a Marketing course is the same no matter where you go.
ECONOMIC
There is economic uncertainty that will be resolved by the length of our required social distancing. Due to the recession and unemployment rates, it is possible that many companies will go out of business which is a threat to the workers, but an opportunity for entrepreneurs. Individuals may have to recover for the businesses that were displaced by COVID-19. Due to the forecast of 135,000 deaths, there will be a long term effect on the economy. Economists from Harvard and the University of Chicago have found that social distancing is the best thing that can be done for the economy. Through saving lives, America can positively influence it’s GDP. With over 30 million Americans unemployed, the job market will be incredibly competitive. There will also be less spending on non-essential goods. Additionally, some industries may be completely eradicated or have to completely change their business model. It may take years for large-scale entertainment to be fully restored. Individuals will not have a demand for being in large crowds where people are heavily breathing and there is no option to social distance. With the travel industry in a case of uncertainty, the cruise ship industry will continue to struggle as the Carnival and Princess cruise lines had severe outbreaks. People will demand the ability to social distance. Individuals will not want to put themselves at risk by staying in tightly confined spaces with no options.
POLITICAL
As a result of COVID-19, every weakness in society has come under spotlight. Racial inequality has been under spotlight during this pandemic. Across 38 states, 34.7 percent of deaths were Black, 14.9 percent were Latinx, 14.6 were Asian, and 13.1 were white. This further shows the inequality and racial oppression for minority groups in America. In Wisconsin, Black residents are 7 times more likely to die than a white resident. Healthcare being tied to employment and high rates of unemployment during a pandemic, may lead to individuals striving for Universal Health Care. Individuals may view Universal Health Care as a necessity as opposed to being “overly Socialist.” Due to stimulus checks, Republicans who may have previously demanded no financial assistance from the government, may see that financial aid is not because individuals are not working hard. Universal basic income or welfare are necessities and it is not a flaw to need assistance. Additionally, through the high death rates and sunken economy, Donald Trump’s approval rating has been in flux. The economy that he previously touted has crashed. Republicans in states with Democrat governors may have a feeling of resentment towards Trump for not providing assistance to their state during a time of need. Those individuals may see that their governor prevented many deaths in their state and understand the merits in having public values put first, as opposed to private values. Americans may search for a president who is driven by science as opposed to narcissism.